EMB Blog: 2024 Camps and Preseason

[bpac55]

1 hour ago, RLC said:

Richards and Carter for Simmonds, Schenn and Couturier was a W for the Flyers.

Bryz for Bobrovsky was the issue.

All of the moves were made to accommodate for Bryz's contract though.

[bpac55]

28 minutes ago, eagle45 said:

We all know the Eagles entire red zone offense is built around either using the tush push or getting into a tush push situation.  Whether that is due to the overwhelming efficacy of the tush push, bad coaching/playcalling, or Hurts struggling to pass in those tight windows…we can all debate until the end of time.

But Hurts having a relatively low percentage of his TD throws being in the red zone…it’s plainly obvious that it’s because of the tush push offense.  There is no other reason to debate it.

I'm hoping bringing Barkley and Kellen Moore in reduces the reliance on the tush push. Also important to note how integral Jason Kelce was to that play being successful. Who knows if it's a sure thing anymore and if it's even needed with a guy like Barkley here. 

Also would love to finally see them use Goedert as a true RZ weapon. 

[austinfan]

2 hours ago, Alphagrand said:

Panthers aren't the best example towards your overall point.  Their nucleus was built from the tank:

Aaron Ekblad -- 1st overall pick

Sam Reinhart -- 2nd overall pick

Alex Barkov -- 2nd overall pick

Matthew Tkachuk -- 6th overall pick (acquired using Huberdeau, who was a 3rd overall pick)

Sam Bennett -- 4th overall pick

Reinhart, trade for late 1st

Tkachuk, trade for Weeger 7th rd Huberdeau at 29.

Ekblad isn't an elite player, probably equivalent to a 10-20th pick or so in most drafts. Only finished in top 10 in Norris voting once (6th), someone like Josi (4th rd) is far better.

Barkov is the only key player drafted high by the Panthers.

Meanhwile Toronto 8 straight PO appearances, 7 1st rd losses, 1 2nd rd, NJ finished worse than the Flyers, Nico #1, Hughes #1, Nemec #2, Hughes #4, Holtz #7

(nor was it due to goalies, Flyers Sv% .884, NJ .886).

Yes, top talent is needed, but lots of ways to obtain it, and you can compensate with a mix of a few top players and some very good players.

Key is good drafting, build up depth and your asset pool, and obtain a couple key players in trades and FA.

And a top goalie can make up for a multitude of sins.

[BigEFly]

6 hours ago, Iggles_Phan said:

.  How does it suggest that?

 

2022 - 12 TD passes for Burrow came from outside the RZ, compared to 13 TD passes for Hurts.

2023 - Given the limited number of games played by Burrow, its a harder comparison to make... but if we go by TD per game played, we can compare somewhat fairly.  4 TD in 10 games for Burrow (0.40 TD per game).   Hurts had 10 in 17 games, 0.588 TD per game.    That's not quite a 50% increase for Hurts... but its tough to say anything definitively.

 

Very small sample size, so its not definitive of anything.   But, looking at the AY/A...
(Only using seasons where Hurts was the primary starter)

Hurts: 7.1, 8.4, and 6.8 - career average 7.3.
Burrow: 6.7, 9.0, 7.6, and 6.4 - career average 7.6.

and then there's the 'Adjusted Net Yards' crazy formula... 
Hurts career: 6.45.
Burrow career: 6.52.  

And passes for First Downs (per game average).

Hurts: 143 (9.5), 165 (11), 185(10.8).   = 
Burrow: 150 (15), 202 (12.6), 222 (13.9), 115 (11.5).

 

Hard to definitively say that the Bengals' offense is less effective at the long ball than the Eagles' offense.  They are very different philosophically.  One relies much more on the running game than the other.

Not sure your stats prove my statement was incorrect but with scoring the goal and a higher percentage of Hurts TD passes coming from out of the red zone, that stat kind of proves my statement.  Now that could be a reflection on Sirianni’s love of the bomb as much as anything.   

[HazletonEagle]

14 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Not sure your stats prove my statement was incorrect but with scoring the goal and a higher percentage of Hurts TD passes coming from out of the red zone, that stat kind of proves my statement.  Now that could be a reflection on Sirianni’s love of the bomb as much as anything.   

It's Hurts' selfishness.  He either wants the highlight bomb or the highlight of running it in himself. 

[Iggles_Phan]

14 minutes ago, BigEFly said:

Not sure your stats prove my statement was incorrect but with scoring the goal and a higher percentage of Hurts TD passes coming from out of the red zone, that stat kind of proves my statement.  Now that could be a reflection on Sirianni’s love of the bomb as much as anything.   

Hurts has lower Air Yards per attempt, lower adjusted net yards per attempt, fewer first downs through passing and had practically identical TDs from outside the red zone.   How does any of that indicate that Hurts' and Sirianni's offense is more effective on long balls?   At best it shows no correlation.  

[FranklinFldEBUpper]

1 hour ago, bpac55 said:

I'm hoping bringing Barkley and Kellen Moore in reduces the reliance on the tush push. Also important to note how integral Jason Kelce was to that play being successful. Who knows if it's a sure thing anymore and if it's even needed with a guy like Barkley here. 

Also would love to finally see them use Goedert as a true RZ weapon. 

I think Dickerson and Mailata meant more to the success of that play than Kelce. Hurts ran to the left nearly every single time. 

[Alphagrand]

4 hours ago, Mike030270 said:

Lol they're really hyping up Moore

Kellen Moore is a good OC.  How good is open to some speculation.  Hard to judge his performance last season with the Chargers -- Herbert missed some time, Mike Williams missed basically the entire season, Ekeler stinks.

His first season in DAL as OC there was significant improvement, but perhaps Linehan was just that bad as the OC before him.  Finishing 1st in offense in 2021 was impressive, but you'd need to consider how much is Moore and how much is Mike McCarthy.  People can say what they want about McCarthy the head coach, but he knows how to design an offense, no question.  Since 2007, teams he's coached have been top 10 in offense 12 times.  Top 5 in offense 10 times.

If the Eagles get back to a top 5 offense with Moore and he's hired away as a head coach somewhere else, McCarthy would be on my shortlist as an OC candidate to replace him.  He and Jerruh are headed for divorce in DAL after this season.

[McMVP]

I don’t really get the Hurts deep ball debate.  He was one of the best in 2022, and obviously not as effective in 2023. Different offensive coaches, and much more points allowed by the defense (less leads to play with, which turned into a need to score more where they appeared more desperate).  I’m not sure if people are only looking at last year…but if they are, they shouldn’t.

We need a reliable play caller; someone that understands blitz hot route concepts, running dominance, and a less predictable scheme (more motion).  I think an argument can be made that Kellen Moore will (or can) bring enough to the table in those categories to allow the offense to excel.  Let’s see if it happens…it’s not about Hurts’ deep all ability at all imo.

 

[brkmsn]

6 hours ago, BigEFly said:

Suggests that Hurts and his receivers are better at the long ball than Burrows and his.   

The advanced stats are interesting: (IAY = intended air yards --- IAY/PA = intended air yards per pass attempt --- CAY = completed air yards --- /cmp = per completion --- the rest you should be able to figure out). You can click the link on their names and mouse over any category for a description of what it means. 

Joe Burrow:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2020	24	CIN	QB	9	10	10	264	404	2688	3438	8.5	1550	5.9	3.8	1138	4.3
2021	25	CIN	QB	9	16	16	366	520	4611	4192	8.1	2332	6.4	4.5	2279	6.2
2022*	26	CIN	QB	9	16	16	414	606	4475	4121	6.8	2319	5.6	3.8	2156	5.2
2023	27	CIN	QB	9	10	10	244	365	2309	2315	6.3	1070	4.4	2.9	1239	5.1

 

 

Jalen Hurts:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2020	22	PHI	QB	2	15	4	77	148	1061	1350	9.1	593	7.7	4.0	468	6.1
2021	23	PHI	QB	1	15	15	265	432	3144	3867	9.0	1681	6.3	3.9	1463	5.5
2022*	24	PHI	QB	1	15	15	306	460	3701	3714	8.1	1928	6.3	4.2	1773	5.8
2023*	25	PHI	QB	1	17	17	352	538	3858	4656	8.7	2161	6.1	4.0	1697	4.8

 

Comparing two QBs that play in two largely different offensive schemes, you can see the difference. Burrow's average pass depth is less than Hurts'. It's not really a surprise that his completion percentage is better. Personally, I'm hoping Moore's offense will include more shorter depth throws than what we have been seeing from the Eagles. I don't think it's a bad thing. I happen to think people ruling out a QB's production that isn't strictly a result of passing are just people that can't let go of the past as the NFL changes. Total TDs is a more important offensive stat than total passing TDs. 

I still think that Burrow is the more advanced pure passer, but I think both QBs' overall "QB play" in the NFL has been pretty equal to date. Both players have helped lead their teams to a SB appearance already. 

[Alphagrand]

1 hour ago, brkmsn said:

The advanced stats are interesting: (IAY = intended air yards --- IAY/PA = intended air yards per pass attempt --- CAY = completed air yards --- /cmp = per completion --- the rest you should be able to figure out). You can click the link on their names and mouse over any category for a description of what it means. 

Joe Burrow:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2020	24	CIN	QB	9	10	10	264	404	2688	3438	8.5	1550	5.9	3.8	1138	4.3
2021	25	CIN	QB	9	16	16	366	520	4611	4192	8.1	2332	6.4	4.5	2279	6.2
2022*	26	CIN	QB	9	16	16	414	606	4475	4121	6.8	2319	5.6	3.8	2156	5.2
2023	27	CIN	QB	9	10	10	244	365	2309	2315	6.3	1070	4.4	2.9	1239	5.1

 

 

Jalen Hurts:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
2020	22	PHI	QB	2	15	4	77	148	1061	1350	9.1	593	7.7	4.0	468	6.1
2021	23	PHI	QB	1	15	15	265	432	3144	3867	9.0	1681	6.3	3.9	1463	5.5
2022*	24	PHI	QB	1	15	15	306	460	3701	3714	8.1	1928	6.3	4.2	1773	5.8
2023*	25	PHI	QB	1	17	17	352	538	3858	4656	8.7	2161	6.1	4.0	1697	4.8

 

Comparing two QBs that play in two largely different offensive schemes, you can see the difference. Burrow's average pass depth is less than Hurts'. It's not really a surprise that his completion percentage is better. Personally, I'm hoping Moore's offense will include more shorter depth throws than what we have been seeing from the Eagles. I don't think it's a bad thing. I happen to think people ruling out a QB's production that isn't strictly a result of passing are just people that can't let go of the past as the NFL changes. Total TDs is a more important offensive stat than total passing TDs. 

I still think that Burrow is the more advanced pure passer, but I think both QBs' overall "QB play" in the NFL has been pretty equal to date. Both players have helped lead their teams to a SB appearance already. 

That’s a good analysis to review.  I would also add a couple of variables:

The Bengals have modified their offense the past couple of years in an attempt to reduce the hits Burrow is taking.  He was sacked 32 times in 10 games in his rookie season, then 51 times in 16 games in 2021.  The decrease in air yards the past two seasons is out of necessity, the Bengals not wanting to risk him becoming another Andrew Luck due to the punishment absorbed from long-developing plays.

Burrow has some mobility, but certainly not to the extent the dual threat QBs have.  He needs to get the ball out quickly and distribute because his legs are less adept at getting him out of harm’s way.  His time-to-throw over his career has been 2.65, 2.69, 2.55, 2.54  — Hurts holds the ball much longer by NFL standards: 3.12, 3.11, 2.76, and 3.03.  Throwing off script after the designed play has exhausted generally leads to longer throws — it’s pretty rare to see a QB scramble around, only to throw a short dump off to an outlet receiver.

[Random Reglar]

4 hours ago, eagle45 said:

We all know the Eagles entire red zone offense is built around either using the tush push or getting into a tush push situation.  Whether that is due to the overwhelming efficacy of the tush push, bad coaching/playcalling, or Hurts struggling to pass in those tight windows…we can all debate until the end of time.

But Hurts having a relatively low percentage of his TD throws being in the red zone…it’s plainly obvious that it’s because of the tush push offense.  There is no other reason to debate it.

In 2021, fairly early in the season,  the Eagles had 1st and goal from the 1.  They didn't get a TD.  They tried to throw.  This was against the 9ers, the Eagles lost.  I don't remember exactly when tush push started,  but since that was started,  things like failing to score a TD with first and goal and losing stopped happening.  One of the last 2 years the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl.

[Random Reglar]

2 hours ago, BigEFly said:

Not sure your stats prove my statement was incorrect but with scoring the goal and a higher percentage of Hurts TD passes coming from out of the red zone, that stat kind of proves my statement.  Now that could be a reflection on Sirianni’s love of the bomb as much as anything.   

If people are going to be doing math with these numbers,  you might want to find out total tds,  rushing tds,  rushing tds from inside the 5.   Compare the Eagles and Bengals on that data.

Might also want to compare Eagles and Bengals with WRs and TEs with tackles inside the 5 after 20+ passes.  More curious than anything.  

I think the Eagles had a few long passes, long plays, that weren't TDs.  Maybe I'm not remembering it right.

[315Eagles]

3 hours ago, HazletonEagle said:

It's Hurts' selfishness.  He either wants the highlight bomb or the highlight of running it in himself. 

I don't think Hurts is a selfish player.  I feel he just wants to win.

However I still don't think he's a great passer.  He's had 1 good year out of 4 that he's actually looked like a good QB and knowing where to go with the ball, making good decisions.  

When they get down to the RZ it's alot tighter and not as much room.  So he's got to make quick reads and fit his passes in tighter spaces.  I feel he has trouble with that and reading defenses.  Hopefully Moore will help but he's an ex-Cowboy so he'll probably fu** everything up.

[HazletonEagle]

Just now, 315Eagles said:

I don't think Hurts is a selfish player.  I feel he just wants to win.

However I still don't think he's a great passer.  He's had 1 good year out of 4 that he's actually looked like a good QB and knowing where to go with the ball, making good decisions.  

When they get down to the RZ it's alot tighter and not as much room.  So he's got to make quick reads and fit his passes in tighter spaces.  I feel he has trouble with that and reading defenses.  Hopefully Moore will help but he's an ex-Cowboy so he'll probably fu** everything up.

You are right that hes not a great passer. But hes also selfish.

[bpac55]

3 hours ago, FranklinFldEBUpper said:

I think Dickerson and Mailata meant more to the success of that play than Kelce. Hurts ran to the left nearly every single time. 

I can't find it but there's a video breaking down Kelce during the tush push. It's probably 70% Kelce, 30% Hurts. Carson Wentz was just as effective at the sneak when he was here. Kelce made the play what it is/was.

[bpac55]

 

From 2016 to 2021, Carson Wentz got a first down on 47 of 53 QB sneak attempts for a success rate of 88.7%. The Eagles have been great at this for almost a decade. 

[Random Reglar]

passing td, passing int, rushing td
bengals 2023
27    14   12
bengals 2022
35    12    14
eagles 2023
24   16    22
eagles 2022
25    9     32

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202209110det.htm


looking at the first game of the 2022 season.

And that game is a good example of big plays that are not TDs, then rushing TDs.

There were 4 rushing TDs, all preceded by sizeable gains.   Something like 25 yard pass from the 30 to the 5.   Close to TDs,  but not.  I'd say that the WR or TE should get the TD.  If they're getting 16 yards,  get 21 and a TD.   Hurts is throwing the TD passes, but the WR/TEs weren't getting it in for TDs,  so the running game gets those TDs.  You can't say say he wasn't throwing the passes,  those were good plays that could have been TD passes.    With Eagles WR/TEs making TDs out of those passes,  the stats look a lot different.  The Eagles and Hurts have more passing TDs and the Eagles have fewer rushing TDs.   When you're close to the goal line,  it's easier to get the TD by running, whether it's the tush push, or just regular running.  The Eagles shouldn't be throwing from the 5.  

[Random Reglar]

51 minutes ago, 315Eagles said:

When they get down to the RZ it's alot tighter and not as much room. 

So it's running time.  The Eagles are good at converting in the red zone with the run.

Often,  it's the WR/TE who makes a long play, not quite a TD.  Next time,  same pass, make it a TD.  I used a sample size of the first game of the 2022 season, and there were a lot of passes outside the 20, getting inside the 10.   

[RememberTheKoy]

Bummer

 

 

 

[HazletonEagle]

2 minutes ago, RememberTheKoy said:

Bummer

 

 

 

The bummer is this

Bridges told his team that he wanted to be a Knick. Bridges did not ask to be a 76er.

That aside, we can thank our lucky stars Morey didnt give up such a compensation package for a role player. Knicks got fleeced. And we can continue to ponder on the negative impact Morey's relationships with players is having on our team. 

[LeanMeanGM]

I always thought it was pretty crazy how vastly different the NFL draft is compared to every other sports draft. NFL picks are meaningful while every sport they are almost meaningless, especially out of the top few. I’m not even sure why anyone would watch the other drafts. 

[RememberTheKoy]

30 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

The bummer is this

Bridges told his team that he wanted to be a Knick. Bridges did not ask to be a 76er.

That aside, we can thank our lucky stars Morey didnt give up such a compensation package for a role player. Knicks got fleeced. And we can continue to ponder on the negative impact Morey's relationships with players is having on our team. 

 

Bridges desire to go to the Knicks and not the Sixers has nothing to do with Morey. He wants to play with his Villanova teammates.  Plus if any reservation exists about playing for the Sixers it would be because they traded him almost immediately after drafting him despite him being a hometown kid and his mom working for the team.

[HazletonEagle]

1 minute ago, RememberTheKoy said:

 

Bridges desire to go to the Knicks and not the Sixers has nothing to do with Morey. He wants to play with his Villanova teammates.  Plus if any reservation exists about playing for the Sixers it would be because they traded him almost immediately after drafting him despite him being a hometown kid and his mom working for the team.

Whatever his reason/s the bummer is that he does not want to be here. The good news is that we didnt make a trade like the one the Knicks just made.

[Alphagrand]

32 minutes ago, HazletonEagle said:

The bummer is this

Bridges told his team that he wanted to be a Knick. Bridges did not ask to be a 76er.

That aside, we can thank our lucky stars Morey didnt give up such a compensation package for a role player. Knicks got fleeced. And we can continue to ponder on the negative impact Morey's relationships with players is having on our team. 

I don’t get it.  Why would the Knicks trade 5 first round picks and a second round pick for a small forward who scores 19.6 per game with 4.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists …..

Can’t you pretty much pick up a guy on the side of the road somewhere for that kind of production?